Saul "Canelo" Alvarez vs. Austin Trout
First of all, HUGE props to Saul "Canelo" Alvarez for pushing for this fight against Austin Trout. Business-wise, this is a bad and unnecessary decision. There are big money fights out there that can be made with less risk. Apparently, Canelo's managers, trainers, and Golden Boy all tried to dissuade him from this bout, but he asked for this specifically.
As readers know, I'm generally hesitant to pick underdogs, especially if the favorite is highly marketable. However, I can't resist in this instance.
I like Trout to win this fight easily. I became quite the believer after seeing him beat Miguel Cotto live. In terms of how the fight will play out, I see this bout looking similar to the Andre Ward vs. Carl Froch fight. If you recall that fight, Froch kept attempting to force the action and land a big punch while Ward fought off of his backfoot and seemed to be anticipating almost everything Froch was doing. As that fight went on, Ward seemed to exert more and more control over the pace and distance. I expect the same for this bout.
I anticipate that Canelo will always be "a step behind" Trout due to the speed differential. In other words, Trout will constantly beat Alvarez to the punch (pun intended). I also see Trout's height and longer reach, combined with his jabbing volume creating quite a number of problems for Canelo. Alvarez's best punch is arguably his left hook, especially to the body. Sound familiar? :: cough, cough :: Cotto. :: cough, cough :: The ease with which Trout dealt with Cotto's left hook doesn't bode too well for Canelo.
As always with big punchers, however, Canelo has a puncher's chance.