A puncher’s chance.

That’s all Victor Ortiz has got in this welterweight title fight coming up on Saturday against Floyd Mayweather, Jr.

I don’t think there’s any reason to overthink this one.  I can’t see this fight unfolding any other way than Mayweather eventually taking the kid to school.  By the mid-rounds (at the latest) Floyd should be in full control and on his way to humiliating Victor.

Note that I don’t have anything against Ortiz; he’s just not ready for this fight.  He really only has one credential on his resume, which is his thrilling upset victory over Andre Berto, a guy I have been calling overrated for years.  In the fight just before that, Ortiz got outboxed by Lamont Peterson down the stretch after knocking him down twice early.  If Lamont was able to adjust and come back to take a draw, you can bet that Floyd will also be able to adjust.

Victor showed some grit in the victory over Andre Berto, but what really stuck out in my mind from that fight was that even though he was winning, he was getting hit pretty flush with a lot of Berto right hands.  Mayweather’s straight right is even more accurate, and Ortiz’s chin isn’t exactly made of granite as we all know.

If this fight were a few years in the future, and Ortiz had several more big welterweight fights under his belt, maybe I’d see this on differently.  Unfortunately, the fight is this Saturday.

I’d take Floyd to win this one and maybe throw on a kicker on a Mayweather KO victory.  If absolutely want to hedge, I’d take Ortiz by KO—probably the only shot he has of winning.

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