I’m heading to Atlantic City for the Carl Froch vs. Glen Johnson bout , and I’m expecting an upset that looks something like the recent Wilfredo Vazquez Jr. vs.  Jorge Arce fight.

First, Glen is the bigger man.  He has been fighting at light heavyweight since 2001 and did not drop back down to super middleweight until his most recent bout against Allan Green.

Second, Glen has been fighting top-quality larger men.  Johnson has fought the likes of Chad Dawson and Tavoris Cloud.  Neither guy has been able to back Johnson off of them for extended periods of time.  Keep in mind, those guys are big, solid light heavyweights.  Johnson walked right through most of their best punches and kept the pressure on to such an extent that he not only won a respectable number of rounds against both fighters, but also made the intimidating Cloud start to wilt.

Third, Froch seems to need space to operate.  Because of Glen’s granite chin and pressure style, many of his fights involve long stretches of inside fighting.  The inside is where Johnson excels and where Carl seems to avoid being.  If Johnson isn’t fazed by any of Froch’s punches, his constant forward motion will prevent Carl from having the space he needs to be effective.

I see a win from the “Road Warrior” here and may even put a small portion of my bet on Johnson by KO.  Similar to the Vazquez vs. Arce fight, I see Froch winning the early rounds with smart boxing, and Johnson taking over in the middle rounds as the pressure begins to have an effect.  Depending on when Carl starts to feel the effects of Glen’s pressure, I don’t think a stoppage win by Johnson is out of the question.


Prediction Confidence Level: 70%

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