Martinez vs. Dzinziruk
A jab. That’s all Serhiy Dzinziruk has. And it won’t be enough to beat Sergio Martinez.
Mind you, Serhiy’s jab is a ridiculously effective weapon. Watch his last fight against Daniel Dawson. Dawson couldn’t get any part of his offense going because every time he would open up, he would be forced to eat a jab. Reminds me of Winky Wright’s jab disrupting Shane Mosley’s offense every time Shane tried to open up.
There’s a huge difference if you’re fighting Martinez, however. Sergio has a wide range of attacks that he can employ and his mobility is sure to get Dzinziruk out of position. On top of this, Sergio can also adjust his offense to better fit his opponent’s style. See Martinez vs. Paul Williams I. Against Williams, Martinez varied his attack until he found something that worked. If that particular lead or combination stopped working, he would try something else. I doubt that Dzinziruk will be able to adjust on the fly accordingly.
Dzinziruk is also is not the type of fighter that gives Martinez problems. As a counterpuncher, Sergio is most susceptible to volume fighters. This is evident in his only two losses, which were to Antonio Margarito and Paul Williams in their first match. Both Margarito and Williams throw a lot of punches and their strategy is to overwhelm and break an opponent down over the course of a fight. This is not what Dzinziruk does. Dzinziruk uses an elite jab to control the pace of a fight and put rounds in the bank. Unfortunately for Dzinziruk, Martinez has also shown an ability to get around a jab. Against Martinez, Williams had problems landing his long jab which normally accounts for a good portion of his fearsome volume. Kelly Pavlik, who typically uses his jab as a range-finder for his night-ending right-hand, was fighting “blind” when he couldn’t land it with any sort of regularity on Martinez. Yes, I understand that neither guy’s jab is as quick or as text-book clean as Dzinziruk’s. The point is, Martinez is no stranger to getting around a jab that is important to his opponent’s arsenal.
Sergio wins this one easier than expected. I'll be driving up to the Foxwoods Resort Casino in Connecticut for it. Too bad there are no sportsbooks out there...
Prediction Confidence Level: 80%